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NFL Playoffs Are Often Anticlimactic

For decades an annual January refrain was heard as the Super Bowl approached, declaring that the Big Game, with a few exceptions, is always a blow-out and an unmitigated anticlimax. This feeling still persists though it is now a somewhat faulty notion as fans have been blessed with some extraordinary Super Bowl games, especially in the last dozen years, including the last two.

But the numbers also don't lie and there have been too many Super Bowls that were over by halftime as the average margin of victory in the 43 Super Bowls has been 15.2 points. A surprisingly high number considering that the two best teams in the league, one would think, would provide more drama and excitement.

To be fair, football suffers from no more of an acute case of postseason bathos than baseball as there have been 14 Super Bowls (one-third) decided by a margin of seven points or less - exactly the same percentage of Fall Classics that have gone the full distance of seven games (35 out of 105 World Series).

Yet what is more overlooked is the fact that over the course of all 391 postseason games - not just the Super Bowl - in the NFL (starting with the modern era in 1970 with the AFL-NFL merger), there has been a relative paucity of superb games. Sure we all remember the legendary tussles that are seared into the football fan's memory - Oakland vs. Baltimore in 1977, San Diego over Miami in 1981, San Francisco and Dallas, also from 1981, Buffalo and Houston from 1992, etc. - but the majority of playoff games are devoid of fourth quarter tension.

And as championship Sunday is upon us, most football fans are hoping for two stellar games to finalize the Super Bowl invitations. Because it certainly does seem that the playoffs to this point, with the exception of two close contests (one of them being that classic offensive battle between Arizona and Green Bay) have been utterly mundane and have not provided the usual shot of that winter-Sunday-late-afternoon-good-feeling.

And again, the numbers back up this impression. Thus far, through the first eight playoff games this season, the average margin of victory has been 17.2 points - the greatest spread since the merger of the AFL and NFL in 1970. The next closest year for this dubious distinction is the 2000 season which saw a 16.8 point average victory margin (for fairness, years in which there was one lopsided score - as when Jacksonville beat Miami 62-7 in the 1999 divisional round - but the rest of the playoff games were reasonably close were not factored).

The most lopsided scoring margins in the playoffs since the merger of the NFL and AFL in 1970 (year listed is year of regular season):

Year Average Pt. Differential
2009 17.2
2000 16.8
1983 16.25
1996 16.1

The breakdown of average margin of victory per playoff round since 1970:

Round AFC NFC
Wild Card 12.4 11.9
Divisional 11.4 14.8
Championship 12.9 14.4
Super Bowl 15.2

It's hard to find a reason for why this disparity exists. As far as the Super Bowl having more than its fair share of yawns, it is understandable as each era has a dominating team (Packers, Steelers, Niners, Cowboys, etc.) that plays at such a higher level than their competition. But for the wild card and divisional rounds, it's curious as to why the games aren't more competitive on a consistent basis.

Other interesting playoff facts:

  • The belief that the NFC has always been the league of defense has definite merit, as 15% of NFC championship games have ended in a shutout, including three in a row starting with the 1984 season when the Niners, Bears (who didn't give up a point in their two playoff games in the 1985 season) and Giants blanked their opponents. Yet only 4% of wild card and divisional games have yielded shutouts. And there has yet to be a shutout in the Super Bowl.
  • Speaking of shutouts, the strangest score for a playoff game has to be when Dallas defeated Detroit (yes the Lions were actually in the playoffs at one time) by the baseball score of 5-0 in their 1970 divisional encounter.

     

     

  • Overtime games have indeed been uncommon - 6% of all postseason games have ventured into the extra period (6 wild card, 9 divisional and 3 championship games). And of course no Super Bowl has gone to overtime.

 

 

Award-winning columnist Tim Joyce provides regular commentary for RealClearSports. His work has also appeared in Yahoo.com, MSNBC.com, and Tennis Week. Email: joyce.timothy@gmail.com

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