In the spring, Tim Tebow of Florida, a quarterback, a Heisman Trophy winner, a community leader, son of an evangelist, will be available in the NFL draft, which means a lot of people who think they know what makes great football will wonder if they know what makes a great football player.

The suggestions and predictions of why Tebow either will be a star or a flop will pound us in the face, and despite reputations, both of the analysts and the athlete, nobody really has a clue.

Especially when it comes to the most important position in the game, Mr. QB.

Peyton Manning was supposed to be a champion, and damn if everybody wasn't on the money with the guy. You have to be right some of the time, don't you?

Tebow has been the catalyst of the spread offense coached by Urban Meyer. Just the way Alex Smith was the catalyst of the spread offense coached by Meyer when he and Alex both were at Utah.

As we know, Alex, who received glorious scouting reports, was the first man taken in the 2005 draft, by the San Francisco 49ers. And as we also know, five seasons later Smith has neither proven or disproven himself to be worthy of the selection.

The Bay Area has been a difficult place for quarterbacks with expectations. First the Niners made Smith No. 1, then two springs later, April 2007, the Oakland Raiders, blithely went after JaMarcus Russell of LSU with that year's No. 1 pick.
Smith, at least, is starting, finally. Russell is not even playing, unless you consider a cameo appearance against Denver a couple of Sundays ago. Otherwise, he's been a guy on the sideline, watching a couple of people previously waived by other teams, first Bruce Gradkowski, then the not-so-legendary Charlie Frye.

Smith's progress or lack of it might give pause to teams thinking about Tebow. Alex has a better arm than Tebow, but Alex has yet to go out and do what quarterbacks are required to do, win football games. Not merely keeping a team from losing but like a Manning or John Elway or Joe Montana, pulling out a game with a long drive.

Maybe this is because the Niners in their current incarnation as a franchise that tiptoes around a challenge, don't take a lot of chances. Whether that's because the defense is better than the offense or because the coaching staff is wary of Smith is yet to be determined.

For better or worse, Smith is Mike Singletary's man. He says a lot of upbeat things about young Alex. Even when he throws three interceptions, as happened against Philadelphia. Or gets passes batted down at the line of scrimmage, the case against the Detroit Lions.

Alex, of course, is working with his fifth offensive coordinator in five seasons and has had two serious injuries. He produced a 300-yard game not long ago, but to this point seems to be auditioning for a job which when you're the first person selected in the draft shouldn't require an audition, no questions asked.

The questions about Russell won't stop. In his third year, albeit after a long holdout his rookie season, JaMarcus is a riddle inside an enigma wrapped in a mystery. Head coach Tom Cable says JaMarcus just needs time. Where? On the bench?

Russell helped LSU win a national championship. But Cable has lost all faith in the man. Asked whether the 5-10 Raiders would be going to the post-season had Russell performed adequately, the coach responded, "Without even asking the question, you know that we would have.''

But Cable then added, "I'm convinced that (Russell) has the tools to (become a great quarterback). Every human being has a choice to make, and the choices you make kind of dictate who you are and what you become.''

Somewhat esoteric for a man whose responsibility it is to prepare others to pound each other on any given Sunday, but maybe we fail to comprehend that coaches and players are more than just muscle and blood.

The choice the Raiders made, taking JaMarcus Russell, has in a way dictated what they have become, a team with seven consecutive losing seasons.

Is Russell to blame for his failings? Or are the Raiders to blame for taking him?

Alex Smith is in slightly better stead. He's playing. And learning. And in a way warning that teams taking a quarterback high in the draft never should take anything for granted.