Roger Federer is breathing very easy tonight - and not just because he conducted yet another grass court clinic in dismantling the inspired but helpless veteran Tommy Haas 7-6, 7-5, 6-3 to play in his record breaking seventh consecutive Wimbledon final, and in so doing also breaks another record by reaching his 20th Grand Slam final.
Rather, the sublime Swiss is no doubt relieved that he will not be facing off against Andy Murray, the man who Federer has lost to on four straight occasions. This is due to a brilliant performance from Andy Roddick, who followed his superb quarterfinal victory over Lleyton Hewitt by pulling off a sizeable upset in defeating the hope of Great Britain, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6, 7-6.
So for the second straight Grand Slam, Federer will not have had to play against a top four player (the last time he beat a resident of the top four in a Slam was at the 2008 US Open, when he defeated both Murray and Novak Djokovic en route to the title). Murray was also thought by many to be the actual favorite for this fortnight, and many suspected he was the only man who could deny Federer the chance to surpass Pete Sampras as the all-time Grand Slam title leader - Wimbledon will be his 15th if he's able to win today.
Is there actually reason for Federer to fear Roddick?
A rather preposterous thought on the face of it, considering the fact that The Roger has utterly dominated Roddick, owning an overwhelming 18-2 record against the top ranked American. Additionally, Federer has never lost in eight matches against Roddick at a Grand Slam event, with three of those matches coming in finals, including Wimbledon in 2004 and 2005.
But the Andy Roddick of these past two weeks appears to be a different species than the one Federer is used to routinely and methodically obliterating nearly every time the duo step on the court. Friday's match against Murray provided plentiful evidence of how Roddick has varied and improved his game over the last several months.
For one thing, there's the mettle the hard-serving Texan displayed at crucial moments in the semifinal - most memorably when, after being broken with ease when serving for a two sets to one lead at 5-4 in the third set, Roddick recouped and played a nearly flawless tiebreaker, which proved to be the turning point in the match. Roddick was well aware that if Murray had somehow taken the lead, the fiercely partisan crowd might have lifted the Scot to victory. As it was, Roddick took the crowd out of the equation early on.
Then there was the match strategy that was executed to near perfection. Just as in his victory over Hewitt, Roddick played within himself, especially from the baseline. Instead of going for all-out winners, Roddick utilized his much improved footwork and stepped into the court, allowing him to dictate points without having to go for the lines. This kept Murray on the defensive most of the afternoon.
But perhaps nowhere has Roddick improved as much as he has at net. His numerous and well-timed forays to the forecourt produced numerous winners. And if he is indeed up to the monumental task of upending the Swiss stylist on Sunday he will need to continue this trend.
Which is more desirable, a strong defense or a superior offense - one of the eternal questions in competitive endeavors. In most team sports, one often hears that "defense wins championships." However, this is often not so for tennis, especially not for Roddick on today. He'll have to take the initative and impose his game by attacking, whenever possible, Federer's backhand (the Nadal blueprint) and follow that up with wise and numerous trips to the net, forcing Federer to come up with consistent passing shots. Granted, Federer will no doubt put on a shot making display at times, but Roddick needs to be steadfast in his commitment to aggressive play. It is the only way he'll shock Roger.
And oh yeah, Andy, hold that serve. If Roddick can at least serve as well as he has the last few matches, and push the sets to tiebreakers, he'll have more than a fighting chance. Consider: Roddick has an unbelievable 25-4 record in tiebreakers this year.
Before the start of the 2009 campaign, one would have assumed that Roddick's good-but-clearly-not-great career was near its end. After all, he had reached only one Grand Slam semifinal since the 2006 US Open. And he was seemingly out of the conversation when speaking of the best players in the world as Djokovic, Murray and Del Potro were the new threats to Roger and Rafa.
But here he is playing on the final today, for the third time at the Big W - and only one win away from becoming a sure bet Hall of Famer.
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